Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Norris wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Marner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.7% vs Marner 43.1% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 54.6%
Defensive zone
Marner 51.7%
Neutral zone
Marner 54.7%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Norris
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Norris
Marner
Last 5: Norris 2-3 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
1
0
Norris
Marner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marner
0
1
Norris
Marner
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
1
2
Norris
Marner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (356)
41.5% (282)
+8.5%
Power Play
48.7% (76)
40.0% (5)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
25.0% (12)
+17.9%
On penalty kill, Norris has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Norris is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (145).
Norris shoots left. Marner is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Norris
Marner
Home
47.2% (193)
36.1% (158)
Away
51.6% (246)
46.1% (141)
By Period
Norris
Marner
P1
53.8%
41.6%
P2
48.2%
40.2%
P3
47.9%
40.5%
Final 5 min
45.6%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.7%
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 13:19 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:00 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 18:46 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 10:42 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 04:21 | Offensive | Josh Norris |