Scouting Report
Noel Acciari holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Marner wins 40.5% vs right-shot opponents — Acciari shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 43.1% vs Acciari 51.2% (-10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 81.5%
Defensive zone
Acciari 91.0%
Neutral zone
Acciari 66.8%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Marner
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Marner
Acciari
Last 5: Marner 3-2 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
2
1
Marner
Acciari
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
Acciari
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Acciari
0
1
Marner
Acciari
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (282)
53.0% (285)
-11.5%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
31.3% (16)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
50.8% (183)
-25.8%
On penalty kill, Acciari has a +25.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Marner is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (79).
Marner shoots right. Acciari is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (107).
Home / Away
Marner
Acciari
Home
36.1% (158)
53.2% (267)
Away
46.1% (141)
49.3% (217)
By Period
Marner
Acciari
P1
41.6%
53.1%
P2
40.2%
51.1%
P3
40.5%
50.6%
Final 5 min
41.2%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
40.8%
Acciari
38.0%▼
46.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 3 | 07:51 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 05:47 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 05:47 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 05:35 | Offensive | Noel Acciari |