Scouting Report
Noel Acciari holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Marner wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — Acciari shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 43.1% vs Acciari 51.3% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 75.2%
Defensive zone
Acciari 91.6%
Neutral zone
Acciari 75.8%
Result
Noel Acciari favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Marner
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Marner
Acciari
Last 6: Marner 4-2 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
2
1
Marner
Acciari
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marner
2
0
Marner
Acciari
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Acciari
0
1
Marner
Acciari
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
42.2% (462)
52.8% (3,276)
-10.6%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
48.2% (85)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (65)
47.1% (1,061)
-11.7%
On penalty kill, Acciari has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Marner is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (173).
Marner shoots right. Acciari is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,186).
Home / Away
Marner
Acciari
Home
38.2% (293)
52.0% (2,115)
Away
46.0% (252)
50.7% (2,307)
By Period
Marner
Acciari
P1
39.1%
52.2%
P2
41.1%
51.5%
P3
47.1%
50.5%
OT
40.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
41.8%
Acciari
38.0%▼
46.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 3 | 07:51 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 05:47 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 05:47 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 05:35 | Offensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 10, 2017 | 2 | 13:12 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |