Scouting Report
Quinton Byfield holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Byfield on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Marner wins 40.9% vs left-shot opponents — Byfield shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 43.1% vs Byfield 45.4% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Byfield 50.3%
Defensive zone
Byfield 83.1%
Neutral zone
Byfield 70.7%
Result
Quinton Byfield favored at 66.2%
33.8%
66.2%
Marner
Byfield
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Marner
Byfield
Last 8: Marner 5-3 Byfield
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Byfield
1
2
Marner
Byfield
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marner
2
0
Marner
Byfield
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
2
1
Marner
Byfield
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Byfield
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (282)
46.5% (759)
-5.0%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
50.0% (58)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
35.1% (148)
-10.1%
On penalty kill, Byfield has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Byfield shoots left. Marner is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Marner shoots right. Byfield is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (328).
Home / Away
Marner
Byfield
Home
36.1% (158)
46.2% (442)
Away
46.1% (141)
44.0% (523)
By Period
Marner
Byfield
P1
41.6%
44.1%
P2
40.2%
43.5%
P3
40.5%
47.7%
Final 5 min
41.2%
42.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
40.8%
Byfield
66.0%▲
56.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 17:06 | Offensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 16:56 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 16:42 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 13:28 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 01:35 | Offensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 13:29 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 01:02 | Neutral | Quinton Byfield |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 05:26 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |