Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Marner wins 40.9% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 43.1% vs McLeod 47.8% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 71.8%
Defensive zone
McLeod 64.6%
Neutral zone
Marner 54.3%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Marner
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Marner
McLeod
Last 7: Marner 3-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
McLeod
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
3
Marner
McLeod
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Marner
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (282)
49.2% (796)
-7.7%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
44.8% (87)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
43.3% (263)
-18.3%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Marner is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Marner shoots right. McLeod is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (398).
Home / Away
Marner
McLeod
Home
36.1% (158)
49.2% (575)
Away
46.1% (141)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Marner
McLeod
P1
41.6%
52.8%
P2
40.2%
45.1%
P3
40.5%
45.6%
Final 5 min
41.2%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
40.8%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 04:34 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:54 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:15 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:11 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 13:05 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 01:09 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |