Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Marner wins 40.1% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 43.1% vs McLeod 49.6% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 72.3%
Defensive zone
McLeod 53.9%
Neutral zone
Marner 54.5%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
Marner
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Marner
McLeod
Last 7: Marner 3-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
McLeod
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
3
Marner
McLeod
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Marner
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
42.2% (462)
50.4% (3,345)
-8.2%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
51.0% (292)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (65)
44.3% (635)
-8.9%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Marner is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (372).
Marner shoots right. McLeod is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,490).
Home / Away
Marner
McLeod
Home
38.2% (293)
50.2% (2,158)
Away
46.0% (252)
48.9% (2,114)
By Period
Marner
McLeod
P1
39.1%
50.8%
P2
41.1%
48.4%
P3
47.1%
50.0%
OT
40.0%
37.1%
Final 5 min
47.5%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
41.8%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 04:34 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:54 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:15 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:11 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 13:05 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 01:09 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |