Scouting Report
Ryan Strome holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Marner wins 40.5% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 43.1% vs Strome 45.2% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 52.5%
Defensive zone
Strome 56.2%
Neutral zone
Strome 54.8%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Marner
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Marner
Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
Strome
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (282)
44.2% (267)
-2.7%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
37.0% (27)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
50.0% (4)
-25.0%
On penalty kill, Strome has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Marner is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (79).
Marner shoots right. Strome is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (95).
Home / Away
Marner
Strome
Home
36.1% (158)
42.0% (157)
Away
46.1% (141)
45.4% (141)
By Period
Marner
Strome
P1
41.6%
40.0%
P2
40.2%
46.4%
P3
40.5%
44.0%
Final 5 min
41.2%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
40.8%
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
43.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 05:37 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |