Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barron wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barron 51.3% vs Steel 52.8% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 59.4%
Defensive zone
Steel 54.4%
Neutral zone
Steel 58.9%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Barron
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Barron
Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barron
1
0
Barron
Steel
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barron
1
0
Barron
Steel
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
1
2
Barron
Steel
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barron
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (152)
56.9% (320)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (11)
37.0% (73)
+8.5%
On penalty kill, Barron has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Barron is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (104).
Barron shoots left. Steel is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
Barron
Steel
Home
46.1% (76)
55.9% (202)
Away
57.5% (87)
51.0% (198)
By Period
Barron
Steel
P1
63.0%
55.5%
P2
51.0%
55.1%
P3
45.6%
50.3%
Final 5 min
57.4%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barron
48.0%▲
41.0%
52.1%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 09:24 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 02:48 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 08:01 | Neutral | Sam Steel |