Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 44.9% vs Frost 49.5% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 66.3%
Defensive zone
Frost 66.3%
Neutral zone
Frost 60.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 62.9%
37.1%
62.9%
Fantilli
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Fantilli
Frost
Last 5: Fantilli 3-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Frost
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
1
Fantilli
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (358)
48.6% (704)
-5.3%
Power Play
50.0% (32)
55.7% (115)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
25.0% (4)
-25.0%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Fantilli is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Fantilli shoots left. Frost is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Frost
Home
46.8% (218)
49.9% (399)
Away
39.7% (174)
49.1% (424)
By Period
Fantilli
Frost
P1
40.3%
51.2%
P2
38.1%
53.9%
P3
54.1%
42.7%
OT
30.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
38.9%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
58.0%▲
51.0%
43.6%
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 15:37 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 09:17 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 04:49 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 02:19 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 12:43 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |