Scouting Report
Rourke Chartier holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Chartier on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Frost wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Chartier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 49.5% vs Chartier 51.5% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 83.3%
Defensive zone
Chartier 55.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 55.0%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Frost
Chartier
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Frost
Chartier
Last 6: Frost 1-5 Chartier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Chartier
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Chartier
0
1
Frost
Chartier
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Chartier
0
3
Frost
Chartier
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Chartier
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (704)
54.2% (225)
-5.6%
Power Play
55.7% (115)
75.0% (4)
-19.3%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
43.3% (67)
-18.3%
On power play, Chartier has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Chartier shoots left. Frost is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Frost shoots left. Chartier is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Home / Away
Frost
Chartier
Home
49.9% (399)
49.5% (202)
Away
49.1% (424)
57.4% (94)
By Period
Frost
Chartier
P1
51.2%
51.6%
P2
53.9%
49.5%
P3
42.7%
54.6%
Final 5 min
50.0%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Chartier
60.0%▲
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 12:19 | Offensive | Rourke Chartier |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 14:56 | Defensive | Rourke Chartier |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 16:40 | Neutral | Rourke Chartier |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 11:01 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 16:51 | Neutral | Rourke Chartier |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 10:47 | Neutral | Rourke Chartier |