Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Frost wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs Donato 48.1% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 94.3%
Defensive zone
Frost 79.9%
Neutral zone
Frost 88.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 88.5%
88.5%
11.5%
Frost
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Frost
Donato
Last 6: Frost 5-1 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
0
Frost
Donato
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Donato
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Donato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (701)
48.1% (258)
+6.8%
Power Play
60.8% (166)
43.2% (37)
+17.6%
On power play, Frost has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Frost shoots left. Donato is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (169).
Home / Away
Frost
Donato
Home
56.0% (443)
45.8% (142)
Away
56.6% (429)
49.0% (153)
By Period
Frost
Donato
P1
58.9%
48.1%
P2
55.3%
46.6%
P3
54.0%
46.8%
OT
70.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 07:04 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 16:43 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:57 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 10:50 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |