Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs Monahan 52.8% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 53.8%
Defensive zone
Monahan 77.3%
Neutral zone
Monahan 62.3%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 61.8%
38.2%
61.8%
Frost
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Frost
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
Frost
Monahan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (701)
53.2% (823)
+1.7%
Power Play
60.8% (166)
55.3% (159)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
48.4% (95)
+51.6%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +51.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Frost shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Home / Away
Frost
Monahan
Home
56.0% (443)
54.6% (529)
Away
56.6% (429)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Frost
Monahan
P1
58.9%
49.0%
P2
55.3%
55.4%
P3
54.0%
53.6%
OT
70.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
51.4%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 11:05 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 10:44 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 18:39 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 1 | 08:05 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |