Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Geekie on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Geekie wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Geekie 48.5% vs Paul 52.2% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Geekie 68.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 51.3%
Neutral zone
Geekie 55.1%
Result
Morgan Geekie favored at 60.7%
60.7%
39.3%
Geekie
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
9
(17 meetings)
8
9
Geekie
Paul
Last 10: Geekie 5-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
6
3
Geekie
Paul
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Geekie
Paul
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Geekie
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Geekie
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (2,307)
52.5% (3,796)
-3.7%
Power Play
45.7% (188)
56.5% (480)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (129)
46.7% (574)
-1.0%
On power play, Paul has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Geekie is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,923).
Geekie shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,780).
Home / Away
Geekie
Paul
Home
50.0% (1,281)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
46.8% (1,343)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Geekie
Paul
P1
48.6%
53.9%
P2
48.8%
51.0%
P3
47.7%
52.0%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.7%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
48.4%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 19:54 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 01:03 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:37 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 10:19 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:54 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 04:50 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 04:16 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 15:53 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 02:22 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 06:00 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:55 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 04:19 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |