Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Geekie wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Geekie 48.4% vs Stastny 55.1% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Geekie 72.8%
Defensive zone
Geekie 70.7%
Neutral zone
Geekie 73.4%
Result
Morgan Geekie favored at 72.8%
72.8%
27.2%
Geekie
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Geekie
Stastny
Last 6: Geekie 1-5 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Geekie
Stastny
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
Geekie
Stastny
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
3
Geekie
Stastny
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Geekie
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (2,289)
54.6% (10,616)
-5.9%
Power Play
45.9% (183)
59.1% (1,994)
-13.2%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (129)
52.9% (1,119)
-7.2%
On power play, Stastny has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Geekie is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,909).
Geekie shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,907).
Home / Away
Geekie
Stastny
Home
50.0% (1,277)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
46.8% (1,324)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Geekie
Stastny
P1
48.4%
56.3%
P2
48.9%
55.4%
P3
47.5%
53.5%
OT
66.7%
62.9%
Final 5 min
47.8%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Geekie
42.0%▼
44.5%
48.3%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 01:28 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| May 1, 2022 | 3 | 19:42 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| May 1, 2022 | 3 | 09:36 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| May 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:21 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| May 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| May 1, 2022 | 2 | 08:01 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |