Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 40.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 44.9% vs Aho 52.2% (-12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 64.3%
Defensive zone
Smith 70.0%
Neutral zone
Smith 67.6%
Result
Nate Smith favored at 66.1%
66.1%
33.9%
Smith
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Smith
Aho
Last 5: Smith 1-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Smith
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Smith
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
1
0
Smith
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (92)
51.6% (819)
-12.5%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
58.4% (173)
-8.4%
On even strength, Aho has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Smith is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (66).
Smith shoots right. Aho is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
Smith
Aho
Home
31.3% (48)
53.9% (568)
Away
47.9% (48)
50.7% (491)
By Period
Smith
Aho
P1
28.0%
55.4%
P2
51.7%
51.2%
P3
38.1%
50.9%
Final 5 min
42.1%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
42.0%▲
40.5%
39.6%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2022 | 3 | 01:46 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 06:22 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 1 | 13:49 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 1 | 13:44 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 1 | 04:01 | Neutral | Nate Smith |