Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 44.9% vs Aho 51.2% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 68.5%
Defensive zone
Smith 83.2%
Neutral zone
Smith 71.2%
Result
Nate Smith favored at 72.0%
72.0%
28.0%
Smith
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Smith
Aho
Last 5: Smith 1-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Smith
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Smith
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
1
0
Smith
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (112)
50.1% (6,619)
-9.9%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
58.9% (1,310)
-8.9%
On even strength, Aho has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Smith is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (75).
Smith shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
Smith
Aho
Home
34.9% (63)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
47.2% (53)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Smith
Aho
P1
36.4%
51.1%
P2
51.4%
52.0%
P3
35.4%
50.7%
Final 5 min
37.5%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
42.0%▲
40.5%
40.5%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2022 | 3 | 01:46 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 06:22 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 1 | 13:49 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 1 | 13:44 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 1 | 04:01 | Neutral | Nate Smith |