Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 39.0% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 44.9% vs Seguin 53.6% (-13.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 52.5%
Defensive zone
Seguin 53.0%
Neutral zone
Smith 52.4%
Result
Nate Smith favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Smith
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Smith
Seguin
Last 5: Smith 2-3 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Smith
Seguin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
1
0
Smith
Seguin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
2
Smith
Seguin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (112)
53.7% (8,071)
-13.5%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
55.9% (810)
-5.9%
On even strength, Seguin has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Smith is 39.0% vs right-shot opponents (41).
Smith shoots right. Seguin is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,846).
Home / Away
Smith
Seguin
Home
34.9% (63)
55.9% (4,759)
Away
47.2% (53)
51.4% (4,885)
By Period
Smith
Seguin
P1
36.4%
52.8%
P2
51.4%
53.3%
P3
35.4%
54.7%
Final 5 min
37.5%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
42.0%▲
40.5%
40.5%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2022 | 3 | 19:02 | Defensive | Nate Smith |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 3 | 07:20 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 3 | 03:43 | Neutral | Nate Smith |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 2 | 01:13 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 1 | 13:48 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |