Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +16.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 36.7% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 44.9% vs Seguin 55.4% (-16.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 52.7%
Defensive zone
Seguin 54.9%
Neutral zone
Smith 52.8%
Result
Nate Smith favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Smith
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Smith
Seguin
Last 5: Smith 2-3 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Smith
Seguin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
1
0
Smith
Seguin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
2
Smith
Seguin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (92)
56.5% (712)
-17.4%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
59.7% (67)
-9.7%
On even strength, Seguin has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Smith is 36.7% vs right-shot opponents (30).
Smith shoots right. Seguin is 63.8% vs right-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
Smith
Seguin
Home
31.3% (48)
58.5% (402)
Away
47.9% (48)
53.8% (426)
By Period
Smith
Seguin
P1
28.0%
58.4%
P2
51.7%
54.7%
P3
38.1%
54.1%
Final 5 min
42.1%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
42.0%▲
40.5%
39.6%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2022 | 3 | 19:02 | Defensive | Nate Smith |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 3 | 07:20 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 3 | 03:43 | Neutral | Nate Smith |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 2 | 01:13 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 1 | 13:48 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |