Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McKegg on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McKegg wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McKegg 49.5% vs Thompson 54.5% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McKegg 63.1%
Defensive zone
Thompson 63.5%
Neutral zone
Thompson 54.1%
Result
Greg McKegg favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
McKegg
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
McKegg
Thompson
Last 8: McKegg 4-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
McKegg
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
McKegg
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McKegg
3
1
McKegg
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McKegg
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (184)
55.8% (654)
-6.9%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
50.0% (10)
+12.5%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (19)
51.2% (123)
-3.8%
On power play, McKegg has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. McKegg is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (143).
McKegg shoots left. Thompson is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
McKegg
Thompson
Home
50.0% (112)
57.0% (421)
Away
48.5% (99)
52.7% (366)
By Period
McKegg
Thompson
P1
42.4%
57.9%
P2
55.4%
52.3%
P3
49.3%
55.2%
Final 5 min
51.2%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McKegg
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.3%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2020 | 2 | 01:23 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Mar 1, 2020 | 1 | 09:38 | Offensive | Greg McKegg |
| Mar 1, 2020 | 1 | 02:03 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 3 | 04:53 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 2 | 03:12 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 2 | 02:51 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 1 | 15:19 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 1 | 02:03 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |