Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 52.7%). Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 52.1% vs Thompson 52.5% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 86.2%
Defensive zone
Thompson 61.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 63.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Tavares
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Tavares
Thompson
Last 9: Tavares 2-7 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Thompson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
4
Tavares
Thompson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
3
Tavares
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (1,121)
54.4% (870)
-2.0%
Power Play
51.3% (304)
45.8% (24)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
58.8% (17)
45.1% (162)
+13.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Tavares is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (911).
Tavares shoots left. Thompson is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Home / Away
Tavares
Thompson
Home
56.5% (731)
55.3% (510)
Away
47.8% (711)
50.4% (546)
By Period
Tavares
Thompson
P1
56.1%
53.5%
P2
50.3%
52.2%
P3
50.5%
52.7%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.5%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
52.2%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2015 | 3 | 19:19 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 2 | 18:07 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 2 | 17:13 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 2 | 11:06 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 5, 2014 | 3 | 07:04 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 5, 2014 | 3 | 04:28 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 5, 2014 | 2 | 09:19 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 5, 2014 | 2 | 09:15 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 5, 2014 | 1 | 18:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |