Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.3% vs 55.0%). Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.9% vs Thompson 54.5% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 78.6%
Defensive zone
Thompson 75.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 56.4%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Tavares
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Tavares
Thompson
Last 8: Tavares 2-6 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
4
Tavares
Thompson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (861)
55.8% (654)
-1.0%
Power Play
57.5% (226)
50.0% (10)
+7.5%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (29)
51.2% (123)
+0.5%
On power play, Tavares has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Tavares is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (685).
Tavares shoots left. Thompson is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Tavares
Thompson
Home
58.1% (559)
57.0% (421)
Away
52.4% (557)
52.7% (366)
By Period
Tavares
Thompson
P1
57.6%
57.9%
P2
55.5%
52.3%
P3
52.0%
55.2%
OT
80.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
55.3%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2020 | 3 | 07:17 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 2 | 15:03 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 2 | 02:27 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 3 | 04:07 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 2 | 14:23 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 2 | 09:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 2 | 09:33 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 2 | 00:10 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |