Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thompson wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 54.3% vs Monahan 52.8% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 78.6%
Defensive zone
Thompson 80.3%
Neutral zone
Thompson 54.2%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Thompson
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Thompson
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
2
1
Thompson
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (236)
51.5% (641)
+4.0%
Power Play
60.0% (5)
62.8% (129)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (46)
33.3% (9)
+23.2%
On penalty kill, Thompson has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Thompson is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (199).
Thompson shoots left. Monahan is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Thompson
Monahan
Home
53.1% (128)
53.9% (362)
Away
57.9% (159)
52.5% (417)
By Period
Thompson
Monahan
P1
59.0%
48.0%
P2
55.4%
57.0%
P3
52.6%
54.1%
Final 5 min
51.4%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
55.7%
Monahan
58.0%▲
53.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 16:11 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 02:15 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 2 | 02:27 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |