Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (76% H2H, 21 meetings). Thompson wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 52.9% vs Monahan 51.3% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 29-24 in 53 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 74.8%
Defensive zone
Thompson 82.3%
Neutral zone
Thompson 50.8%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
Thompson
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
24
(53 meetings)
29
24
Thompson
Monahan
Last 10: Thompson 7-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
5
16
Thompson
Monahan
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
10
2
Thompson
Monahan
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
14
6
Thompson
Monahan
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (5,812)
51.1% (11,356)
+3.0%
Power Play
54.8% (135)
53.7% (2,580)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (1,381)
46.0% (766)
+1.9%
On even strength, Thompson has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Thompson is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (4,683).
Thompson shoots left. Monahan is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (9,301).
Home / Away
Thompson
Monahan
Home
54.8% (3,626)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
51.1% (3,717)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Thompson
Monahan
P1
53.2%
50.9%
P2
52.9%
51.7%
P3
52.8%
51.0%
OT
47.9%
53.5%
Final 5 min
51.6%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.9%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 16:11 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 02:15 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 2 | 02:27 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 03:02 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 05:33 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 02:00 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 29, 2021 | 2 | 17:32 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 29, 2021 | 1 | 01:20 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2020 | 1 | 19:50 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 19, 2019 | 3 | 19:40 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 19, 2019 | 1 | 19:03 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 13, 2017 | 3 | 16:32 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 13, 2017 | 3 | 16:23 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 13, 2017 | 2 | 10:02 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 13, 2017 | 1 | 14:07 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 2, 2017 | 3 | 10:00 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 2, 2017 | 2 | 15:02 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 2, 2017 | 2 | 03:13 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 30, 2016 | 2 | 19:46 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 30, 2016 | 2 | 13:47 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |