Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Beagle wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beagle 55.8% vs MacKinnon 50.5% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 88.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 58.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 75.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 82.8%
17.2%
82.8%
Beagle
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Beagle
MacKinnon
Last 5: Beagle 0-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
4
Beagle
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Beagle
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beagle
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (799)
49.3% (1,167)
+7.5%
Power Play
64.7% (17)
61.0% (187)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
54.6% (291)
47.9% (167)
+6.7%
On even strength, Beagle has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Beagle is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Beagle shoots right. MacKinnon is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (492).
Home / Away
Beagle
MacKinnon
Home
57.6% (552)
57.7% (728)
Away
55.1% (555)
44.0% (793)
By Period
Beagle
MacKinnon
P1
56.9%
50.1%
P2
59.0%
52.5%
P3
54.0%
49.3%
OT
40.0%
43.8%
Final 5 min
56.1%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2017 | 3 | 06:00 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2017 | 3 | 05:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2017 | 3 | 03:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 1 | 06:21 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 1 | 02:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |