Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +15.0% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Carter wins 60.7% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 58.5% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+15.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 86.5%
Defensive zone
Carter 52.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 68.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Carter
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Carter
MacKinnon
Last 6: Carter 2-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Carter
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
3
Carter
MacKinnon
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
59.7% (727)
44.7% (1,053)
+15.0%
Power Play
68.1% (72)
36.8% (95)
+31.3%
Penalty Kill
53.2% (139)
65.0% (20)
-11.8%
On power play, Carter has a +31.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Carter is 60.7% vs right-shot opponents (298).
Carter shoots right. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (308).
Home / Away
Carter
MacKinnon
Home
58.7% (455)
49.4% (553)
Away
60.0% (483)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Carter
MacKinnon
P1
61.3%
45.3%
P2
57.1%
42.7%
P3
59.8%
45.1%
OT
57.1%
46.2%
Final 5 min
60.2%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2023 | 1 | 08:25 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 08:43 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 08:36 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 05:40 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 01:25 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 14:05 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |