Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Rooney on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Rooney wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rooney 47.8% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 79.7%
Defensive zone
Rooney 77.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.0%
Result
Kevin Rooney favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Rooney
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Rooney
MacKinnon
Last 6: Rooney 3-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Rooney
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rooney
3
0
Rooney
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Rooney
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rooney
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (319)
49.2% (1,266)
-2.2%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
54.9% (193)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (87)
49.1% (55)
-2.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Rooney is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Rooney shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Rooney
MacKinnon
Home
45.8% (203)
50.9% (740)
Away
48.6% (210)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Rooney
MacKinnon
P1
47.2%
50.9%
P2
55.0%
51.8%
P3
37.3%
47.1%
OT
50.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
51.6%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rooney
40.0%▼
47.0%
47.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 10:57 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 09:54 | Defensive | Kevin Rooney |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3 | 09:43 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3 | 09:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3 | 05:30 | Defensive | Kevin Rooney |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 09:32 | Defensive | Kevin Rooney |