Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cooley on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cooley wins 46.5% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cooley 45.3% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Cooley leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 67.0%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 86.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 70.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 73.1%
26.9%
73.1%
Cooley
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
2
(12 meetings)
10
2
Cooley
MacKinnon
Last 10: Cooley 9-1 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cooley
4
1
Cooley
MacKinnon
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cooley
2
1
Cooley
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cooley
4
0
Cooley
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cooley
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (632)
49.2% (1,266)
-5.1%
Power Play
46.3% (108)
54.9% (193)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (20)
49.1% (55)
+5.9%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Cooley is 46.5% vs right-shot opponents (284).
Cooley shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Cooley
MacKinnon
Home
46.4% (418)
50.9% (740)
Away
42.7% (342)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Cooley
MacKinnon
P1
44.3%
50.9%
P2
45.6%
51.8%
P3
44.0%
47.1%
OT
100.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
41.6%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cooley
42.0%▼
49.5%
44.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 12:18 | Defensive | Logan Cooley |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 11:59 | Defensive | Logan Cooley |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 09:44 | Neutral | Logan Cooley |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 06:53 | Offensive | Logan Cooley |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 06:39 | Offensive | Logan Cooley |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 01:08 | Offensive | Logan Cooley |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 16:11 | Neutral | Logan Cooley |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 15:49 | Neutral | Logan Cooley |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 12:41 | Offensive | Logan Cooley |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 05:40 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 04:55 | Neutral | Logan Cooley |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 00:30 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |