Nathan MacKinnon vs Rickard Rakell
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +15.4% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Rakell shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Rakell 41.7% (+15.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rakell 51.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 62.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
MacKinnon
Rakell
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
MacKinnon
Rakell
Last 6: MacKinnon 3-3 Rakell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Rakell
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rakell
0
1
MacKinnon
Rakell
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
MacKinnon
Rakell
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Rakell
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
36.8% (114)
+13.2%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
42.3% (26)
+22.6%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
0.0% (7)
+34.4%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +34.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rakell shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
MacKinnon shoots right. Rakell is 31.6% vs right-shot opponents (57).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Rakell
Home
53.3% (591)
41.2% (68)
Away
49.6% (581)
31.6% (79)
By Period
MacKinnon
Rakell
P1
49.9%
34.5%
P2
53.2%
38.5%
P3
50.8%
33.3%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
46.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Rakell
40.0%▲
37.0%
36.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 16:49 | Defensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 04:08 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |