Nathan MacKinnon vs Rickard Rakell
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Rakell shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Rakell 44.9% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 54.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 70.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 55.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
MacKinnon
Rakell
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
MacKinnon
Rakell
Last 10: MacKinnon 6-4 Rakell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Rakell
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
2
MacKinnon
Rakell
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
MacKinnon
Rakell
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Rakell
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
44.4% (1,864)
+1.7%
Power Play
53.3% (1,412)
50.3% (197)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
21.7% (23)
+21.1%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rakell shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
MacKinnon shoots right. Rakell is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (751).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Rakell
Home
49.7% (6,444)
46.7% (1,041)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
42.7% (1,044)
By Period
MacKinnon
Rakell
P1
47.4%
45.6%
P2
46.6%
42.1%
P3
46.1%
46.4%
OT
48.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Rakell
40.0%▲
37.0%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 16:49 | Defensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 04:08 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 15, 2018 | 1 | 12:25 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 9, 2016 | 2 | 08:58 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 9, 2016 | 3 | 04:55 | Defensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 9, 2016 | 1 | 16:21 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 16, 2015 | 3 | 05:38 | Offensive | Rickard Rakell |