Scouting Report
Riley Nash holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 15 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Nash 48.5% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Nash leads 21-19 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 67.3%
Defensive zone
Nash 55.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
MacKinnon
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
21
(40 meetings)
19
21
MacKinnon
Nash
Last 10: MacKinnon 7-3 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
10
5
MacKinnon
Nash
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nash
4
9
MacKinnon
Nash
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nash
5
7
MacKinnon
Nash
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
48.7% (4,621)
-2.6%
Power Play
53.3% (1,412)
51.0% (249)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
44.9% (550)
-2.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
MacKinnon shoots right. Nash is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (1,674).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Nash
Home
49.7% (6,444)
50.2% (2,740)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
46.7% (2,681)
By Period
MacKinnon
Nash
P1
47.4%
49.0%
P2
46.6%
47.9%
P3
46.1%
48.0%
OT
48.4%
68.4%
Final 5 min
49.0%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 10:19 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 13:10 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 3 | 09:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 2 | 17:13 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 2 | 16:27 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 2 | 09:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 2 | 09:03 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 2 | 07:14 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 1 | 10:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 3 | 04:55 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 2 | 13:17 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 3 | 12:11 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Oct 9, 2018 | 3 | 12:05 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Oct 9, 2018 | 3 | 11:58 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Oct 9, 2018 | 2 | 10:53 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Oct 11, 2017 | 3 | 09:53 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Oct 11, 2017 | 3 | 09:22 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 11, 2017 | 3 | 06:11 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Oct 11, 2017 | 2 | 14:35 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |