Scouting Report
Riley Nash holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 45.9% vs Nash 51.7% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 55.6%
Defensive zone
Nash 83.2%
Neutral zone
Nash 72.2%
Result
Riley Nash favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
MacKinnon
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
MacKinnon
Nash
Last 9: MacKinnon 6-3 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
5
0
MacKinnon
Nash
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nash
0
3
MacKinnon
Nash
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Nash
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (755)
54.1% (292)
-8.3%
Power Play
48.3% (60)
57.1% (7)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
27.6% (29)
45.9% (98)
-18.3%
On penalty kill, Nash has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. MacKinnon is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (208).
MacKinnon shoots right. Nash is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Nash
Home
49.5% (396)
56.3% (183)
Away
41.7% (448)
48.6% (214)
By Period
MacKinnon
Nash
P1
50.2%
58.9%
P2
43.8%
51.0%
P3
41.4%
46.5%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
41.0%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 10:19 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 13:10 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 3 | 09:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 2 | 17:13 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 2 | 16:27 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 2 | 09:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 2 | 09:03 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 2 | 07:14 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 1 | 10:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |