Scouting Report
Tim Washe holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Washe shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.4% vs Washe 55.6% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 72.2%
Defensive zone
Washe 89.5%
Neutral zone
Washe 68.6%
Result
Tim Washe favored at 60.1%
39.9%
60.1%
MacKinnon
Washe
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
MacKinnon
Washe
Last 7: MacKinnon 4-3 Washe
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Washe
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Washe
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Washe
0
1
MacKinnon
Washe
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Washe
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (980)
60.9% (207)
-10.9%
Power Play
65.1% (146)
100.0% (3)
-34.9%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
41.7% (48)
-7.3%
On power play, Washe has a +34.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Washe shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (827).
MacKinnon shoots right. Washe is 70.1% vs right-shot opponents (77).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Washe
Home
53.3% (591)
63.3% (120)
Away
49.6% (567)
52.9% (138)
By Period
MacKinnon
Washe
P1
49.6%
60.2%
P2
53.9%
61.0%
P3
50.6%
53.6%
OT
63.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
50.0%▼
53.5%
51.5%
Washe
52.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:03 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:57 | Offensive | Tim Washe |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:44 | Defensive | Tim Washe |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 13:11 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 12:50 | Neutral | Tim Washe |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 03:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |