Scouting Report
Tim Washe holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Washe 55.2% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 66.5%
Defensive zone
Washe 89.2%
Neutral zone
Washe 75.5%
Result
Tim Washe favored at 63.4%
36.6%
63.4%
MacKinnon
Washe
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
MacKinnon
Washe
Last 7: MacKinnon 4-3 Washe
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Washe
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Washe
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Washe
0
1
MacKinnon
Washe
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Washe
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
59.8% (224)
-13.7%
Power Play
53.3% (1,412)
100.0% (3)
-46.7%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
41.7% (48)
+1.1%
On power play, Washe has a +46.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Washe shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
MacKinnon shoots right. Washe is 67.5% vs right-shot opponents (83).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Washe
Home
49.7% (6,444)
62.0% (129)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
52.7% (146)
By Period
MacKinnon
Washe
P1
47.4%
59.6%
P2
46.6%
59.3%
P3
46.1%
53.8%
OT
48.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Washe
54.0%▼
57.5%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:03 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:57 | Offensive | Tim Washe |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:44 | Defensive | Tim Washe |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 13:11 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 12:50 | Neutral | Tim Washe |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 03:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |