Scouting Report
Tim Washe holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Washe shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Washe 55.3% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 70.6%
Defensive zone
Washe 89.7%
Neutral zone
Washe 71.3%
Result
Tim Washe favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
MacKinnon
Washe
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
MacKinnon
Washe
Last 7: MacKinnon 4-3 Washe
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Washe
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Washe
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Washe
0
1
MacKinnon
Washe
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Washe
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
60.2% (216)
-10.2%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
100.0% (3)
-35.1%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
41.7% (48)
-7.3%
On power play, Washe has a +35.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Washe shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Washe is 68.8% vs right-shot opponents (80).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Washe
Home
53.3% (591)
62.0% (129)
Away
49.6% (581)
52.9% (138)
By Period
MacKinnon
Washe
P1
49.9%
59.3%
P2
53.2%
60.8%
P3
50.8%
53.5%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Washe
54.0%▼
57.5%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:03 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:57 | Offensive | Tim Washe |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:44 | Defensive | Tim Washe |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 13:11 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 12:50 | Neutral | Tim Washe |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 03:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |