Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Novak 43.5% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 52.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 76.0%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 58.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 76.0%
76.0%
24.0%
MacKinnon
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
MacKinnon
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
40.7% (460)
+4.8%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
61.5% (39)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
0.0% (1)
+40.0%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +40.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
MacKinnon shoots right. Novak is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (160).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Novak
Home
47.8% (670)
47.0% (236)
Away
44.6% (644)
37.9% (264)
By Period
MacKinnon
Novak
P1
45.3%
43.1%
P2
48.5%
43.1%
P3
45.0%
40.1%
Final 5 min
47.4%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.2%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 07:42 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |