Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Novak 45.0% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 62.0%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 67.0%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 59.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 65.3%
65.3%
34.7%
MacKinnon
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
MacKinnon
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
42.9% (198)
+6.3%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
40.9% (22)
+14.0%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
MacKinnon shoots right. Novak is 39.4% vs right-shot opponents (94).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Novak
Home
50.9% (740)
40.9% (110)
Away
49.0% (774)
44.5% (110)
By Period
MacKinnon
Novak
P1
50.9%
39.1%
P2
51.8%
43.9%
P3
47.1%
44.9%
OT
58.8%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
25.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
49.9%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 02:14 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 04:05 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 02:10 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |