Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.4% vs 45.2%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 45.9% vs Bozak 46.2% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 64.7%
Defensive zone
Bozak 53.0%
Neutral zone
Bozak 50.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
MacKinnon
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
MacKinnon
Bozak
Last 5: MacKinnon 0-5 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
1
MacKinnon
Bozak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
2
MacKinnon
Bozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
2
MacKinnon
Bozak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (755)
46.7% (338)
-0.9%
Power Play
48.3% (60)
50.0% (6)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
27.6% (29)
32.6% (43)
-5.0%
On penalty kill, Bozak has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. MacKinnon is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (208).
MacKinnon shoots right. Bozak is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Bozak
Home
49.5% (396)
47.9% (194)
Away
41.7% (448)
42.5% (193)
By Period
MacKinnon
Bozak
P1
50.2%
40.2%
P2
43.8%
51.4%
P3
41.4%
43.1%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
41.0%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 09:26 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 3 | 16:01 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 3 | 14:01 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 2 | 17:39 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 1 | 13:20 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |