Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Kozak 47.8% (+3.7%)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 67.8%
Defensive zone
Kozak 67.1%
Neutral zone
Kozak 51.0%
Result
Tyson Kozak favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
MacKinnon
Kozak
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
46.0% (137)
+3.2%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
66.7% (3)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
40.0% (5)
+9.1%
On power play, Kozak has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
MacKinnon shoots right. Kozak is 40.3% vs right-shot opponents (62).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Kozak
Home
50.9% (740)
51.2% (84)
Away
49.0% (774)
39.3% (61)
By Period
MacKinnon
Kozak
P1
50.9%
57.1%
P2
51.8%
34.7%
P3
47.1%
48.1%
Final 5 min
51.2%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
46.2%