Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Kozak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Kozak 49.7% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 80.0%
Defensive zone
Kozak 79.4%
Neutral zone
Kozak 51.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 60.2%
60.2%
39.8%
MacKinnon
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
MacKinnon
Kozak
Last 6: MacKinnon 3-3 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
1
MacKinnon
Kozak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kozak
0
2
MacKinnon
Kozak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
49.3% (294)
+0.7%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
60.0% (5)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
50.0% (40)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, Kozak has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Kozak is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (100).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Kozak
Home
53.3% (591)
45.5% (145)
Away
49.6% (581)
52.6% (194)
By Period
MacKinnon
Kozak
P1
49.9%
53.4%
P2
53.2%
50.0%
P3
50.8%
44.3%
Final 5 min
56.1%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:04 | Defensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 12:55 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 09:07 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 08:41 | Defensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 16:45 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |