Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Dowd 48.1% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowd 65.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 66.0%
Neutral zone
Dowd 64.3%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 65.6%
34.4%
65.6%
Pavelski
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Pavelski
Dowd
Last 6: Pavelski 2-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Pavelski
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Pavelski
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (643)
47.2% (608)
+4.1%
Power Play
58.1% (172)
53.1% (96)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (41)
0.0% (3)
+46.3%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +46.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Pavelski is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (199).
Pavelski shoots right. Dowd is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Dowd
Home
53.8% (431)
48.7% (384)
Away
51.1% (425)
46.7% (323)
By Period
Pavelski
Dowd
P1
48.4%
50.2%
P2
52.0%
47.5%
P3
55.6%
46.2%
OT
80.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
51.6%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2017 | 3 | 15:39 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 18, 2017 | 2 | 15:19 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2017 | 2 | 02:40 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 31, 2016 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 30, 2016 | 2 | 18:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2016 | 1 | 10:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |