Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Dowd 50.7% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 86.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 81.6%
Neutral zone
Dowd 65.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 54.6%
54.6%
45.4%
Pavelski
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Pavelski
Dowd
Last 7: Pavelski 2-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Pavelski
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Pavelski
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Pavelski
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
55.2% (625)
-2.9%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
57.1% (7)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
38.2% (220)
+24.3%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +24.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Pavelski is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (176).
Pavelski shoots right. Dowd is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Dowd
Home
54.2% (360)
53.7% (445)
Away
52.6% (329)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Pavelski
Dowd
P1
54.5%
48.8%
P2
56.7%
49.3%
P3
50.8%
54.0%
OT
30.8%
44.4%
Final 5 min
51.4%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 16:25 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 09:23 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 08:54 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 05:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 02:30 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 18:13 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |