Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (95% H2H, 20 meetings). Toews wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.9% vs Dowd 50.7% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 29-9 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 99.0%
Defensive zone
Toews 88.4%
Neutral zone
Toews 90.9%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 94.6%
94.6%
5.4%
Toews
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
9
(38 meetings)
29
9
Toews
Dowd
Last 10: Toews 9-1 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
19
1
Toews
Dowd
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
6
Toews
Dowd
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
8
2
Toews
Dowd
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (13,047)
52.4% (6,009)
+4.8%
Power Play
63.3% (3,252)
56.1% (164)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (1,810)
44.1% (1,635)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Toews is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (6,486).
Toews shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Toews
Dowd
Home
59.7% (9,192)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
56.1% (8,948)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Toews
Dowd
P1
58.6%
51.7%
P2
57.8%
50.4%
P3
57.3%
50.3%
OT
58.9%
45.9%
Final 5 min
58.2%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:20 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:34 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 13:59 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 13:49 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 11:01 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:58 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 15, 2021 | 3 | 19:57 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 15, 2021 | 3 | 04:59 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 15, 2021 | 2 | 09:53 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 15, 2021 | 1 | 12:51 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 15, 2021 | 1 | 04:06 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 16:17 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 10:31 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 01:50 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 19:37 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 15:07 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 08:36 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 06:01 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |