Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.7% vs 50.0%). Look for Bonino on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Bonino 50.0% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Bonino leads 14-11 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Bonino 90.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 62.1%
Neutral zone
Bonino 50.5%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 58.8%
41.2%
58.8%
Dowd
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
14
(25 meetings)
11
14
Dowd
Bonino
Last 10: Dowd 4-6 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Dowd
Bonino
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
5
4
Dowd
Bonino
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bonino
2
6
Dowd
Bonino
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
50.6% (8,315)
+1.8%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
54.1% (972)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
44.6% (1,693)
-0.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Dowd shoots right. Bonino is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,070).
Home / Away
Dowd
Bonino
Home
51.9% (3,897)
51.2% (5,507)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
48.8% (5,480)
By Period
Dowd
Bonino
P1
51.7%
50.6%
P2
50.4%
48.5%
P3
50.3%
51.1%
OT
45.9%
45.7%
Final 5 min
50.5%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2024 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 2 | 01:40 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 1 | 05:39 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 16:37 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 09:27 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 2 | 18:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 12:41 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 07:08 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 06:45 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 14:31 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 07:44 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 1 | 13:21 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 15, 2019 | 3 | 18:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 15, 2019 | 2 | 17:05 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 15, 2019 | 1 | 18:32 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 16, 2016 | 1 | 15:38 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 16, 2016 | 1 | 08:43 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 3 | 03:06 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 3 | 02:52 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |