Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Bonino on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Dowd wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 53.3% vs Bonino 51.2% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bonino 70.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 57.9%
Neutral zone
Bonino 59.0%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 60.9%
39.1%
60.9%
Dowd
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Dowd
Bonino
Last 6: Dowd 2-4 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
0
1
Dowd
Bonino
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bonino
2
3
Dowd
Bonino
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (771)
51.7% (777)
+3.7%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
60.0% (50)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (165)
43.9% (98)
+1.6%
On even strength, Dowd has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Dowd shoots right. Bonino is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Home / Away
Dowd
Bonino
Home
58.2% (462)
48.2% (461)
Away
49.3% (481)
54.5% (464)
By Period
Dowd
Bonino
P1
55.6%
54.1%
P2
50.5%
49.7%
P3
53.9%
50.7%
OT
75.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
53.1%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 12:41 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 07:08 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 06:45 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 14:31 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 07:44 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 1 | 13:21 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |