Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Sturm 53.6% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 68.9%
Defensive zone
Sturm 51.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 61.2%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Dowd
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Dowd
Sturm
Last 5: Dowd 3-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Dowd
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
54.6% (271)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
54.4% (90)
-12.8%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Dowd shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
Dowd
Sturm
Home
48.6% (451)
53.0% (168)
Away
49.5% (416)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Dowd
Sturm
P1
49.1%
58.2%
P2
47.3%
53.2%
P3
51.4%
52.3%
OT
30.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 11:51 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 03:00 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 13:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 08:27 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |