Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Sturm 56.1% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 74.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 58.0%
Neutral zone
Sturm 52.4%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
Dowd
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
10
(18 meetings)
8
10
Dowd
Sturm
Last 10: Dowd 4-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
5
Dowd
Sturm
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
5
4
Dowd
Sturm
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
57.1% (2,719)
-4.7%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
61.3% (62)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
51.0% (498)
-6.9%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Dowd shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Dowd
Sturm
Home
51.9% (3,897)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Dowd
Sturm
P1
51.7%
56.5%
P2
50.4%
54.9%
P3
50.3%
57.4%
OT
45.9%
60.6%
Final 5 min
50.5%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 11:51 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 03:00 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 13:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 08:27 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 02:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 12:32 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 3 | 10:34 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 3 | 03:18 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 2 | 06:07 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 1 | 19:00 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 11:13 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 03:42 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 06:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 8, 2022 | OT | 03:49 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |