Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.9% vs Donato 45.4% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 85.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 86.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 85.8%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 76.4%
76.4%
23.6%
Dowd
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Dowd
Donato
Last 7: Dowd 6-1 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Dowd
Donato
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
6
0
Dowd
Donato
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (835)
43.5% (400)
+8.7%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
48.7% (119)
+11.3%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (350)
33.3% (6)
+10.7%
On power play, Dowd has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Dowd shoots right. Donato is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Dowd
Donato
Home
51.5% (619)
50.2% (279)
Away
48.1% (576)
38.2% (246)
By Period
Dowd
Donato
P1
51.7%
44.6%
P2
51.6%
46.6%
P3
47.0%
42.0%
OT
22.2%
60.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:17 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 3 | 04:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 1 | 15:37 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 10:38 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1 | 09:37 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1 | 09:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |