Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Donato 48.1% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 77.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 56.3%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Dowd
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Dowd
Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Donato
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Donato
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Dowd
Donato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
48.1% (258)
+3.6%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
43.2% (37)
-43.2%
On power play, Donato has a +43.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Dowd shoots right. Donato is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (126).
Home / Away
Dowd
Donato
Home
48.6% (451)
45.8% (142)
Away
49.5% (416)
49.0% (153)
By Period
Dowd
Donato
P1
49.1%
48.1%
P2
47.3%
46.6%
P3
51.4%
46.8%
OT
30.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 16:29 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 02:27 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |