Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.8% vs Johansen 53.3% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 17-16 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Johansen 95.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 75.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 55.1%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
Dowd
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
17
(33 meetings)
16
17
Dowd
Johansen
Last 10: Dowd 4-6 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
3
9
Dowd
Johansen
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
9
5
Dowd
Johansen
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
3
Dowd
Johansen
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (5,850)
53.1% (11,017)
-0.5%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
56.2% (2,163)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (1,600)
50.5% (978)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,600).
Dowd shoots right. Johansen is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (4,371).
Home / Away
Dowd
Johansen
Home
52.1% (3,753)
55.0% (7,001)
Away
49.6% (3,862)
51.7% (7,158)
By Period
Dowd
Johansen
P1
51.9%
53.2%
P2
50.7%
53.9%
P3
50.1%
52.8%
OT
45.9%
58.2%
Final 5 min
50.5%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.8%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2024 | 3 | 06:00 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 3 | 05:34 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 2 | 05:33 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 2 | 01:11 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 07:03 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 09:52 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 02:35 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 12:23 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 05:52 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 02:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 14:32 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 3 | 16:07 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 3 | 13:18 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 3 | 04:33 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 17:06 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 17:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 13:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 12:03 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:57 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:32 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |