Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Dowd wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 53.3% vs Johansen 52.4% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Johansen 82.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.6%
Neutral zone
Dowd 51.3%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Dowd
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Dowd
Johansen
Last 10: Dowd 5-5 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
4
Dowd
Johansen
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
5
2
Dowd
Johansen
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Johansen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (771)
49.4% (1,010)
+6.0%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
62.3% (236)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (165)
67.2% (67)
-21.7%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Dowd is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (322).
Dowd shoots right. Johansen is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (363).
Home / Away
Dowd
Johansen
Home
58.2% (462)
54.7% (655)
Away
49.3% (481)
50.6% (658)
By Period
Dowd
Johansen
P1
55.6%
52.2%
P2
50.5%
50.7%
P3
53.9%
54.8%
OT
75.0%
53.6%
Final 5 min
53.1%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2022 | 3 | 16:07 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 3 | 13:18 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 3 | 04:33 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 17:06 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 17:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 13:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 12:03 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:57 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:32 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 1 | 01:46 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 3 | 18:14 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 3 | 00:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 2 | 18:47 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 1 | 19:52 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |